Super Tuesday is just around the corner. This is perhaps one of the most important days for the campaigns of the remaining presidential contenders. More delegates will be up for grabs this Tuesday than on any other day during the nomination stage of the presidential election, both for the Democrats and the Republicans. Super Tuesday contains states from all over the nation with socially, politically and economically diverse environments. This day is a day for candidates to test their electability and campaign chances on a national scale. Traditionally, the candidate who wins the most delegates on Super Tuesday then goes on to become the nominee for their respective parties. Some states included in Super Tuesday are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia; the Democrats will also host Democrats abroad and American Samoa.
This is a very meaningful date for Republicans. This day will either solidify Trump as their nominee, or it’ll set him back and give Cruz and Rubio the much needed push their struggling campaigns need in order to take on the front-runner. Trump has won every primary and caucus since the nomination race started, with the exception of Iowa. Trump also recently picked up a meaningful endorsement from Chris Christie. Trump has all the momentum to indicate that a victory for him this Super Tuesday is almost inevitable.
There have been rumors about secret meetings being held by the GOP establishment where they discuss the dangers of a Trump nomination to the party, as reported by the New York Times. It’s no secret that the GOP establishment does not want a Trump nomination. A Trump nomination would deal a serious blow to the party because of Trump’s overall lack of party loyalty and anti-establishment aura. Trump is essentially turning Republicans against their own party. However, it is very hard to feel bad for the Republican party. After years of fear-mongering and borderline hate speech, Trump is their Frankenstein monster. So this Super Tuesday, Trump will either begin to crumble or he will emerge victorious, ready to take on the establishment and propel himself into the Presidential race against the Democratic nominee.
Undeniably, this is the most important day for the Clinton and Sanders campaigns. Clinton is going into Super Tuesday especially strong after delivering a debilitating blow to the Sanders campaign. In the South Carolina primary, she absolutely crushed him by a margin of 47%. The bulk of Clinton’s support came from Black voters, the same Black voters who had abandoned her in 2008 in favor of Barack Obama. Nevada and South Carolina were thusly very meaningful defeats for Sanders. Both were supposed to prove that he could do well with minorities, who are a significant part of the Democrat vote. Though he technically won the Latino vote in Nevada, he lost both states, one of them by a disastrous amount. Clinton is going into Super Tuesday looking very strong. But the Sanders campaign is not necessarily far behind. After a virtual tie in Iowa and a 22% margin victory in New Hampshire, Sanders has the momentum to come out successful during Super Tuesday.
Whoever is the winner of most delegates during Super Tuesday will most likely go on to be the nominee because of the way the delegates are distributed within the DNC; the winner of Super Tuesday will have a mathematical advantage over the other, making it almost virtually impossible for a catch up. This is how Clinton lost the nomination in 2008.
The polls thus far indicate that Trump and Clinton will come out victorious during Super Tuesday. Trump leads every state, except for Texas where Texas Senator Ted Cruz takes the lead. Likewise, Clinton leads in almost every Super Tuesday state except for Vermont, where Bernie Sanders is Senator. For the Democrats, there is no polling data for American Samoa and Democrats aborad. If these polls accurately predict the outcomes of Super Tuesday, it would be safe to assume that Clinton and Trump will be our two choices for president in the 2016 general election.
For a breakdown of Democratic Super Tuesday polls, click here.
For a breakdown of Republican Super Tuesday poll, click here.